Bristlecone Blog

Domestic stocks rebounded in the second quarter–led by small cap, energy, and technology shares—but the broader S&P 500 index still ended the quarter below its January peak (up less than 3% for the year). Investor sentiment during the first half was mixed. Initially, optimism abounded that the stimulative impact of last December’s tax cuts, combined with the longest monthly job expansion on record, would push stocks higher. Subsequently, rising geopolitical tensions and escalating trade disputes have clouded the picture, and increased the potential for negative unintended consequences.

Last week brought news that the average 30-year mortgage rate increased to 4.61%, the highest level since 2011. This should not be particularly surprising–mortgage rates are highly correlated to the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, which has more than doubled from its record low nearly two years ago:

In American politics, there is a clear separation between Democrats and Republicans on the subject of whether corporations deserve the same rights as citizens. Where both parties appear to agree lately though is when it comes to extracting big fines from them. The number of billion-dollar fines grew from zero in 2010 to nine in 2016. The 1st few months of the Trump administration saw four settlements of over $1 billion each. The current President, despite touting his pro-business credentials, was very happy to follow the prior administration’s footsteps saying on Twitter in February that fines and penalties against a bank, Wells Fargo, would be “pursued and, if anything, substantially increased.” So the recent news that the bank got fined $1 billion did not come as a surprise.

In his recently-published annual letter to shareholders, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett lamented a dearth of attractive acquisition opportunities in 2017

Dory, a character created by Pixar Animation and played by Ellen DeGeneres in the movie Finding Nemo, is a wide-eyed, blue tang fish who suffers from short-term memory loss. At one point in the movie, she finds herself lost and gets out of trouble by not panicking and telling herself to just keep swimming.

Global capital markets appreciated virtually across the board in the 4th quarter, capping off a strong year for investor returns which saw domestic stock indexes once again close near record highs—boosted by U.S. tax reform legislation passed in late December.