Nearly everyone is familiar with the expression "A bird in hand is worth two in the bush." On its face, this proverb conveys the risk of exchanging a sure thing for the uncertain prospect of something better. But underlying this time-tested truism is a core concept of finance: The Time Value of Money (TVM).
The question we are asked more than any other these days goes something like this: how is it possible that the stock market has recovered so strongly since March while the economic and other news has been so bad? We feel obliged to answer this question, and we will shortly, but before doing so we need to get our hedges in. We simply don't know yet whether the stock market is accurately foretelling a return to normal economic growth or if its recovery is just a temporary, artificially sweetened pop.
The Federal Reserve, in its relentless push to re-ignite inflation, might want to check in with Stan Kroenke, real estate developer and owner of the Los Angeles Rams.
Nobody likes to consider the possibility that they could fall ill or become incapacitated, yet the current health crisis is putting these concerns into sharp relief. One way to mitigate this anxiety is to have a well-considered estate plan in place beforehand, just in case it is needed.
As fiduciaries, we continually question whether our investment process is sound and likely to deliver the returns that our clients need to reach their goals. We draw from history, academic studies, common sense, and apply the lessons to today’s environment. We are generally skeptical of the oft-repeated phrase: “This time it’s different.” It is often abused to justify poor assumptions and flawed decisions. Yet, the current pandemic triggered some unprecedented policy responses from governments around the world.
We hope this letter finds you and your loved ones healthy and safe during the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 is first and foremost a human tragedy of vast proportion. As a society, we are adapting to challenging circumstances, the most important of which is the risk to our health and lives. The financial consequences have been an unprecedented worldwide economic shock and monetary stimulus to mitigate its impact.